GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 12:00 PM

MSA Fieldhouse - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Yinhong	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
2	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
3	ZHENG Marcus	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
3	FANG Haoyu	-	-	6%	34%	59%
5	KAGAN Noah	-	4%	24%	41%	26%	6%
6	LATORRE Leonardo	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
7	GE Felix Fei	-	-	-	6%	31%	63%
8	HONG Derek	-	-	5%	24%	43%	27%
9	ZHANG Hanson	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
10	EDWARDS Connor	-	2%	15%	35%	36%	12%
11	WENGER Liam	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	2%
12	KNIBBE Nathan	1%	11%	36%	42%	10%
13	GOGOI Kavi	1%	11%	37%	39%	12%	-
14	MYERS Julian	-	1%	12%	40%	43%	5%
15	WENGER Rowan	-	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%
16	DEPP Edward	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	1%
17	ZHENG Lerui	-	3%	17%	40%	34%	5%
18	WANG Caleb	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	13%
19	ALVA Anmol	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%
20	KOLACKI Gabriel	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
21	CHAN William	20%	45%	28%	6%	-	-
22	DEBORD Beckett	-	1%	8%	24%	38%	26%	3%
23	WANG Freyr	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	1%	-
24	ZHAO Jason	-	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
25	THEKKEL Jonathan	6%	38%	38%	15%	3%	-
26	WILLIAMS Thomas	22%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
27	XU Rambert	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%	-
28	PAYNE Lynas	19%	44%	30%	7%	-
29	MCGRATH Milo	26%	45%	24%	5%	-
30	TATE Linus	9%	34%	41%	15%	1%
31	LI Andy	-	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
32	TAGORE Ayansh	16%	53%	25%	5%	-	-
33	CHASE Crosby	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%	-
34	GREULICH Nikolas	3%	18%	39%	31%	9%	-
35	MORALES Tycho	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
36	XUE Lucas	28%	45%	23%	5%	-	-
37	POLYZOIS Alkis	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
38	BEIER Rowan	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%	-
39	BILLIET Greyson	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
40	MARVEL Elliot	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
41	CHEN Varick	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
42	VLIEM Henry	35%	45%	18%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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