1st Annual Battle Born RYC and RJC

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 11:00 AM

Tarkanian Basketball Center - Las Vegas, NV, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	POEI Lauren	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
2	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
3	KIM Sydney	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	LI Joy	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	14%
5	VILLARAMA Kara	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	6%
6	LAY Apollonia	-	2%	16%	37%	35%	11%
7	LIU Ariana	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
8	WU Chingfei Amber	-	1%	11%	37%	43%	7%
9	FANG Kelervia	5%	25%	39%	24%	7%	1%
10	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
11	ANDONIAN Lauren	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
12	PEDERSEN Haley	-	4%	21%	41%	29%	5%
13	KIM Lauren	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
14	MONAT Jennifer	-	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
15	PENG Charlotte	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
16	TIKHONOVA Sofia	1%	12%	36%	38%	12%	1%
17	HOM Avery	3%	19%	41%	30%	7%	-
18	SAH Madeleine	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%
19	FAN Sophia	12%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-
20	CHANG Olivia	1%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
21	CHANG Janelle	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
22	XI Sophia	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
23	LING Camryn	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
24	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	-	5%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
25	IDANAWANG Madison	19%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-
26	REZA Fukaina	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%
27	CHU Felicity	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
28	SAUCEDO Fernanda	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
28	JENA Aanvi	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
30	IDANAWANG Allison	70%	26%	4%	-	-	-	-
31	LIPPOLD Marabelle	14%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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