1st Annual Battle Born RYC and RJC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 3:00 PM

Tarkanian Basketball Center - Las Vegas, NV, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHAO Olivia	-	-	-	5%	46%	49%
2	ZHOU Joi	-	-	-	2%	33%	66%
3	KENSICKI Phoebe	-	-	2%	16%	55%	26%
3	RUI Jessie	-	-	1%	9%	43%	47%
5	ZEE Savannah	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
6	LI Joy	-	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
7	ARYA Leela	-	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	6%
8	MA Isabelle	-	-	3%	20%	51%	26%
9	WANG Doreen	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
9	LEE Zoe E.	-	-	1%	6%	27%	48%	18%
11	YAO Abby	-	-	-	5%	39%	55%
11	LIU Ashley	-	-	-	10%	63%	26%
13	LIM Kensie	-	-	4%	19%	41%	30%	5%
14	PARK Lauren	-	-	1%	10%	53%	37%
15	ZHANG Viviana	-	-	4%	18%	40%	32%	6%
16	YUNG Zoe	2%	18%	40%	32%	7%	-
17	DAI Iris Yuyang	-	-	-	1%	9%	40%	51%
18	KIM Natalie	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
19	DESAI Zoya	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	5%
20	JIANG Ziqing	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%	2%
21	LIN Clara	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
22	KIM Ines	1%	11%	51%	35%	3%	-
23	CHUNG Katie	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
24	LI Annabelle	1%	14%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
25	LIN Avery	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
26	KHANAL Sarah	-	6%	40%	48%	6%	-
27	FAN Lauren	2%	20%	44%	30%	3%	-
28	ZALTZMAN Maya	1%	11%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
29	MCLANAHAN Jasmine	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%	-
30	PAWAR Sanvi	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
31	LIM Kora	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
32	THERIOT Reagan	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
33	IRELAND Moira	5%	29%	44%	20%	2%	-
34	POEI Meagan	20%	43%	29%	7%	-	-
35	HOM Emma	2%	16%	39%	36%	7%	-
36	LIU Celia	6%	30%	41%	20%	3%	-
37	ZEE Bella	10%	34%	40%	15%	1%	-
38	KIM Phoebe	54%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
39	TANG Clementine	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
40	SHU Kayla	6%	32%	43%	18%	1%	-
40	POON Taylor	25%	57%	16%	1%	-	-
42	YU-TAN Claire	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
43	PEROJO Angie	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%	-
44	KIM Chloe	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	2%	-
45	JIANG Ziqi	24%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
46	KIM Rylie	6%	30%	41%	20%	3%	-
47	LUO Olivia	20%	43%	29%	7%	-	-
48	KENT Audrey	17%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
49	STOCK Nina	58%	37%	4%	-	-	-
50	ZHANG Annabelle	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%	-
51	ERDMAN-SINESIO Sophia	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
52	CHEN Catherine	9%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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