NEUSFA U17 JO Qualifiers

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 8:30 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KOPPENHEFFER Rowan	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	25%
2	SHAPIRO Natan	3%	22%	38%	27%	9%	1%
3	CHEN Tianjun	11%	34%	36%	16%	2%
3	SZCZAPA Lukas	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
5	FEINBERG James Y.	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
6	SUH Aiden	-	4%	16%	36%	34%	10%
7	MECHREFE Anthony	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
8	CLEARY Owen	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
9	MCMILLAN Jackson V.	-	5%	26%	44%	22%	3%
10	LARAGY Collin	4%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
11	FAUCHER James	3%	18%	34%	31%	12%	2%
12	CHAN Tyler	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
12	CHAVES Evan	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
14	SONG Ryan	2%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%
15	PESSIN Nadav	1%	12%	33%	38%	16%
16	ZHENG Jason	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
17	ASHLEY Logan	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
18	MITSCH Aubrey	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
19	ERIKSEN Casey	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
20	JHA Adarsh	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
21	SONPAL Winslow	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
22	MCGANN Grant	60%	33%	7%	1%	-	-
23	MITTELMAN Maximilian	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
24	MAGLOTHIN Atticus	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
25	JOSEPHS Liam	5%	25%	38%	25%	7%	1%
26	MOSHIER Calvin	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%
27	BEAULIEU Edmund	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
28	BOXER Eishan	16%	38%	32%	11%	1%
29	HAN Nathan	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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