1st Annual Battle Born RYC and RJC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Tarkanian Basketball Center - Las Vegas, NV, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FU Shannon	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
2	LEE Adelynn	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	28%
3	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	27%
3	GAN Shelby	-	2%	17%	41%	34%	6%
5	ROBLES Claudia	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
6	GRAZIANO Ruby Mae	1%	9%	37%	39%	13%	1%
7	BURKS Madison	-	3%	20%	39%	29%	7%
8	KIM Vivian	-	3%	19%	38%	31%	9%
9	CHO Anya	1%	10%	25%	33%	22%	7%	1%
10	CIOBANU Celine	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	4%
11	LI Carlie	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	9%
12	KOHLER Chrissy	14%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-
13	NIMIJAN emerie	18%	36%	30%	13%	3%	-	-
14	LU Chloe	2%	10%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%
15	GARCIA Sophia Noelle	11%	46%	33%	9%	1%	-
16	SAAD Vivian	-	6%	25%	40%	25%	4%
17	ARNOLD Evangeline	-	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
18	MIXON Ivory	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
19	YIP Allison	2%	15%	39%	34%	9%	1%
20	HATHAWAY Alesya	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
21	FLYNN Kensington	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
22	STEPHAN Ella Whitney	1%	9%	34%	38%	16%	2%
23	FEHER Francesca	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
24	GRAZIANO Josephine	25%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
25	LEONG Andrea	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
26	THOMAS Mackenzie	11%	39%	36%	12%	2%	-
27	LI Chloe	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
27	LUCENA Yaretzi	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
29	YOON Claire	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-
30	BEATINGO Chelli	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
31	ZHU Anna	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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