Ultimate Fencing Cup RYC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 10:30 AM

John J. Moore Athletics and Fitness Center - Jersey City, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHO Olivia	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
2	SHIN Elizabeth	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
3	DE CASTRO Kai	-	-	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	ZHU Ella	-	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	25%
5	XING Melly	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	23%
6	CASCONE Sophie	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
7	LIN Claire	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
8	FAN Melody	6%	30%	38%	21%	5%	-
9	LLOYD Bianca	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	3%
10	HOU Xu	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
11	CHAN Jolene	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
12	LE Minnie	1%	12%	33%	36%	16%	2%
13	ENRIQUEZ Bianca Perla	-	1%	8%	24%	37%	25%	5%
14	VO Evelyn	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	2%
15	PAK Rosa	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
16	KIM Lael	2%	16%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
17	ZHENG Annalyn	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
18	JU Victoria	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	5%	1%
19	XU Charlene	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
20	YEH Constance	3%	19%	38%	29%	9%	1%
21	ZHU Alivia	-	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
22	PAEK Mila	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
23	BALIN Sophia	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
24	LUO lucy	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
25	HOLLIS Priscillia	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	6%	1%
26	YANG Hanli	-	1%	8%	23%	36%	26%	7%
27	LIAW Audrey	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
28	CLOUD Chrystie	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
29	CULLEN Serena	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
30	ZHU Audrey	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	2%
31	PAEK Ellie	7%	28%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
32	HUDSON Sophie	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
33	LU Sophia	24%	40%	26%	9%	2%	-	-
34	YAN Elena	38%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
35	LIANG Jasmine	8%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
36	ZUCKER Eleanor	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
37	PAK Sophie	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
38	DEVISETTY Anjali	1%	28%	43%	23%	5%	-
39	WEST Mira	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
40	DUAN Hanling	47%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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