The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Fairfax Challenge SYC/RCC & Y8

Cadet Women's Foil

Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 12:00 PM

Fredericksburg, VA - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TUCKER ALARCON Ariadna C.	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	60%
2	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	1%	15%	45%	39%
3	CHEN Kelly	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
3	CHUSID Mikayla	-	1%	13%	37%	37%	12%
5	ZHANG Alina C.	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
6	ZHAO Sophie L.	-	2%	9%	27%	37%	22%	3%
7	SCHATZ Erika J.	1%	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
8	MCKEVITT Caitlin R.	-	-	7%	38%	42%	13%
9	SEO IRENE Y.	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	17%	2%
10	ABD-ELMONIEM Nusayba K.	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
11	WONG Sophia M.	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
12	KOROTCOVA Anastasia	7%	36%	48%	9%	1%	-
13	ORVANANOS ANICE	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
14	BAKER-ROSENBERG Raynor S.	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%	-
15	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	6%	31%	40%	20%	3%
16	QIAN Zhiyan	30%	53%	15%	2%	-	-
17	LONG Madeline M.	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	6%
18	SENIC Adeline	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
19	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
20	NAMGALAURI Mariam	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
21	SOLDATOVA Maria	1%	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-
22	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	3%	31%	48%	18%
23	SMIGRODZKI Nymeria	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
24	LAM Victoria M.	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
25	NORTH Zoe M.	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-
26	WANG Cynthia	21%	50%	27%	3%	-	-
27	DATLA Medha	47%	43%	10%	-	-	-
28	ZULUETA Catherine	6%	23%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
29	SCHMIDT Victoria	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-
30	ALEXANDER Amelia	49%	43%	7%	1%	-	-
31	KNOEPFFLER ANDREA V.	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
32	DATLA Meha	89%	11%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.