SDFC RJCC 2018

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 3:00 PM

Escondido, CA - Escondido, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KONG Vera	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
2	ZEGERS Anneke E.	1%	15%	36%	33%	13%	1%
3	LIANG Megan	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
3	CAO Stephanie X.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
5	FREEDMAN Janna N.	-	7%	29%	40%	20%	3%
6	ALCANTAR Aryadna	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	11%
7	KIM Emily	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
8	LIM Isabel K.	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
9	FLOYD Pattama (Patty) C.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
10	CHAN Audrey	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
11	SONG Jenny	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	9%
12	LIMB Madeline I.	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
12	GUZMAN Mariana M.	-	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%
14	YAP Madeline	-	1%	10%	34%	43%	12%
15	KOZAK Sonja A.	17%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-
16	REDDY Shreya	-	-	4%	25%	52%	20%
17	RANSON Margaux	-	1%	12%	39%	41%	6%
18	WANG Elsabella Y.	4%	24%	39%	26%	7%	1%
19	KONG Isabel	1%	12%	38%	38%	11%	-
20	GEYER Carolina M.	16%	41%	33%	9%	1%	-
21	MENDIOLA RITCHIE Ingrid	1%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%
22	CODY Alexandra C.	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
23	HE Charlotte	1%	7%	31%	39%	19%	3%
24	MACDONALD Kaylie S.	33%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
25	ZUO Xiaofan	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%
26	PATEL Riya	3%	15%	33%	32%	15%	2%
27	ANDRES Katherine A.	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
28	PLONKA Kaley V.	32%	49%	17%	2%	-	-
28	ALCALDE Anneliesse R.	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-
30	KIM Sujin	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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