NEUSFA Tom Gorman Beanpot Open

Senior Men's Foil

Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BOLAÑOS CAMACHO Alejandro	-	-	-	-	6%	94%
2	JIN Andy	-	3%	18%	39%	34%	6%
3	POPESCU Tudor	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
3	SABATINO Patrick	5%	26%	40%	23%	6%	-
5	ZHAO Brandon	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
6	TIBBETTS Justin	1%	10%	31%	39%	18%	2%
7	ZHAO Brian	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	3%
8	SFINTESCU Alex	1%	9%	34%	38%	16%	2%
9	STAFFORD Gareth	-	2%	15%	34%	34%	14%	1%
10	CROWDER Andrew E.	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
11	ZHENG Harrison	-	1%	12%	34%	39%	14%
12	CHUN Zachary	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
13	DI TELLA Ulises	-	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	-
14	TAM Kyle	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%	1%
15	DJONOUMA Toyohm	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	22%
16	WAYBRIGHT Matteo	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
17	VO Jonathan	-	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%
18	JABLOKOV Roman	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
19	BANKS Alexander S.	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
20	XU Nathan	-	3%	15%	37%	35%	11%
21	DEROSA Patrick	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
22	ARRISON Alexandrew C.	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
23	LAO Kevin	-	5%	22%	43%	29%	1%
24	GATES Combustion	10%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
25	BRENNAN Joshua	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
26	MAGAZU Christopher	9%	37%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
27	CHUN Alexander	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
28	MCENTEE Owen	15%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
29	HU Daniel	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
30	BERETICH Brian	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
31	STOKES CARDENTE Isaiah	13%	48%	31%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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