Manhattan Fencing Center Saber Liberty Cup

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 1:45 PM

Manhattan Fencing of Englewood - Englewood, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ISAYENKO Daniel	-	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
2	LIANG Morgan	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
3	BEAL Colton	-	3%	19%	41%	31%	5%
3	HAHN Ever	-	-	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
5	ARCHIBALD Zachary	-	-	1%	17%	54%	27%
6	SUN Stephen	-	2%	25%	53%	18%	2%
7	ALUF Brendon	1%	11%	34%	42%	13%
8	LIM JUWANA Maximilian	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
9	IP Hunter	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
10	KAPLAN Richard	-	5%	21%	40%	28%	6%
11	SPIELMAN Ren	-	1%	12%	37%	36%	13%	1%
12	ALUF William	-	-	-	7%	42%	51%
14	MARTIRE Francis	1%	13%	53%	29%	4%	-
15	BURNS Carson	16%	41%	33%	10%	1%
16	ZHANG Benjamin	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
17	HONG Isaac	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%	-
18	CHEN Ryan	2%	18%	48%	27%	5%	-
19	SONG Ryan	1%	13%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
20	HU Simon	-	1%	6%	28%	44%	21%
21	DOWNEY Jaxon	-	2%	18%	40%	32%	8%
22	WERNER Jonah	-	-	4%	19%	41%	32%	3%
23	VINCENT Yijia	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
24	ZHERENOVSKY Alan	11%	36%	37%	13%	1%
25	CHEN Tyler	68%	28%	4%	-	-	-
26	LI Xinren	33%	54%	12%	1%	-	-
27	CHOI Ethan	23%	47%	24%	5%	-	-	-
28	ABADIR James	43%	45%	11%	1%	-	-	-
29	MITCHELL Lorne	23%	43%	27%	6%	-
30	HUANG Nicholas	51%	44%	5%	-	-	-
30	KIM Apollo	1%	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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