December NAC

Div II Men's Foil

Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Salt Lake City, UT - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MOHAMMAD Abdulwahab	-	-	1%	11%	43%	45%
2	CURLEY Sebastian D.	-	1%	5%	19%	38%	30%	8%
3	BREIER Matthew F.	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	27%	5%
3	AVRON Case B.	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
5	ZHANG Luke T.	-	-	3%	15%	37%	35%	10%
6	KAO Castor T.	-	-	3%	19%	43%	34%
7	CHOI Ethan L.	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
8	ASSELINEAU Joseph	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	8%	1%
9	LIM Ari	-	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
10	GLOVER James	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
11	LOU Darren	3%	17%	38%	34%	9%	1%
12	MUSHA John M.	-	-	3%	21%	51%	25%
13	BARTH Gavin M.	5%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
14	HSIUNG Richie	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	15%
15	CLAYMAN John A.	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
16	DIERKS Kian	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
17	KIM Ian M.	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
18	YIM Alex	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
19	GUO Hairuo	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
20	SCHWARTZMAN Benjamin	17%	41%	30%	10%	2%	-
21	SMITH Brandon J.	12%	45%	33%	9%	1%	-
22	JEFFERY Jakob	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
23	BERK Theodore	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
24	SEAL Maximus R.	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
25	WALL Peter M.	6%	32%	42%	18%	2%	-
26	JIN Honggu	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	5%
27	NABI Masoud Masoud W.	22%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
28	ZHAO Jesse	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
29	POSTMA Sean	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
30	WU Clarence C.	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
31	MILLER Chance	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
32	JONES Bryan T.	16%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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