December NAC

Div II Women's Saber

Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Salt Lake City, UT - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TANG Catherine H.	-	6%	25%	40%	25%	4%
2	TIMOFEYEV Nicole	-	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
3	YODER Bridget H.	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%
3	DANAHY Ellen D.	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
5	NEWELL Alexia C.	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	10%
6	STONE Hava S.	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
7	WEINBERG Alexandra L.	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
8	KOO Samantha	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	11%
9	YUCEL Emine I.	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
10	SEAL Julie T.	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	15%
11	LAMBERT Jasmine M.	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	12%
12	TUCKER Iman R.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
13	ATLURI Sara V.	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	20%
14	TURNOF Kayla M.	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%	-
15	KOBERSTEIN Maggie	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	5%
16	GULATI Ria	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%
17	DEPEW Charlotte R.	-	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%
18	MANUBAG Amanda R.	-	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%
19	SHIN Andrea Y.	-	2%	16%	37%	34%	10%
20	BAKER Audrey C.	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%
21	GAJOWSKYJ Sophie K.	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
22	MACARR Madalyn A.	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
23	LUCHO Raisza	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
24	ZIELINSKI Isabella G.	-	-	2%	11%	35%	41%	11%
25	ROGERS Pauline E.	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
26	GEYER Carolina M.	2%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
27	GLUCK Myriam	6%	28%	40%	21%	5%	-
27	SAKPAL Raghavi	19%	49%	26%	6%	1%	-
29	RAHIM Alina O.	5%	34%	39%	18%	3%	-	-
30	SUN Alyssa	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
31	WHITESIDES Abigail E.	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
32	SHINN-CUNNINGHAM Barbara	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
33	ZHANG Lynn Y.	8%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
34	WILLEMSE Jamie	52%	40%	8%	1%	-	-
35	HUNG Anna	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
36	DHAR Aamina	7%	33%	39%	17%	3%	-
37	CHEN Grace	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
38	DREYER Nadia S.	2%	19%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
39	COLTER Aurora	54%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
40	CHANCO-EVERETT Aileen	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
41	MARENTES Blanca E.	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
42	LEI Weixuan (Demi)	66%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-
43	CARLUCCI Laura A.	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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