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December NAC

Veteran Men's Saber

Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Salt Lake City, UT - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TSUNG David	-	-	1%	12%	49%	35%	4%
2	MIRONOVAS Mikhail (Misha)	-	-	-	3%	35%	62%
3	PHILLIPS Kim V.	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
3	BACON Michael F.	-	-	1%	15%	58%	26%
5	MATT Chris	-	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
6	MAKOGON Sergey	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
7	BADGER Carlton (Carl) M.	-	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	2%
8	DASHNAW Stephen	-	-	1%	16%	59%	23%
9	DOLEGIEWICZ Mariusz	-	2%	18%	47%	28%	5%
10	THORNTON Ronald J.	-	-	-	1%	9%	46%	45%
11	GUEBLE Jeffrey R.	-	-	-	5%	38%	49%	8%
12	KASSIMOV FARKHAD	-	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	21%
13	PRILUTSKY Stan	-	-	5%	27%	47%	20%
13	BUSH Joshua C.	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
15	LEAR Donald W.	1%	9%	39%	43%	8%	-
16	KOPYLOV Dmitri	-	< 1%	6%	28%	48%	17%
17	HERRERA Richard K.	-	-	-	1%	14%	52%	32%
18	RUNYAN Joshua	-	-	-	6%	39%	55%
19	LILLARD Samuel N.	-	1%	18%	45%	32%	5%	-
20	ZIPPER Michael E.	-	6%	30%	43%	18%	2%
21	PLONKA Derek	5%	49%	37%	8%	-	-
22	NEMAZIE David A.	9%	40%	38%	11%	1%	-
23	JAKUBEK Zygmunt J.	-	1%	15%	42%	35%	7%	-
24	BAKER Keith L.	2%	20%	47%	28%	3%	-
25	ESCUETA Jr Antonio V.	1%	11%	41%	37%	10%	1%
26	WILDMAN Steve	1%	20%	49%	27%	3%	-
27	HICHA Paul R.	-	7%	35%	39%	16%	2%	-
28	CHAMBERS Thomas J.	-	1%	18%	58%	20%	2%	-
29	MIGHELL Jason	-	4%	38%	42%	14%	1%	-
30	KEEFER Philip E.	-	3%	23%	42%	26%	5%	-
31	PARAGANO Vincent	-	7%	35%	47%	10%	1%
32	MCLAUGHLIN Joseph R.	13%	48%	32%	6%	-	-
33	MEHTA Nalin J.	7%	36%	45%	11%	1%	-	-
34	ZINNI Gene	13%	55%	27%	5%	-	-	-
35	BRUCE II Ommer E.	18%	51%	29%	2%	-	-	-
36	KAOURIS George	5%	33%	44%	16%	2%	-
37	BLAIR III Ray H.	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
38	PREUD'HOMME Xavier A.	25%	50%	21%	3%	-	-
39	THORNTON Michael (Mike) G.	67%	31%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	ERIKSON Steven	62%	33%	5%	-	-	-
41	HAYWARD Donald	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-
42	SEGALE William J.	71%	26%	2%	-	-	-	-
43	DANIELL Steven J.	23%	64%	12%	1%	-	-	-
44	GOMES John F.	49%	43%	8%	1%	-	-
45	ACKER Alan	49%	41%	10%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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