Motor City SYC/RCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Friday, February 28, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Elite Sportsplex - Waterford, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KHANNA Adamantis	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
2	GRIGORIEV Roman	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
3	AVERY Marcus	-	-	5%	25%	44%	25%
3	LUCAS William	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
5	SONG Aidan	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
6	HENDERSON Louis	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	13%
7	SHANKAR Rahm	1%	7%	30%	40%	19%	3%
8	STOLCKE Julian	2%	14%	34%	34%	13%	2%
9	CHEN Leo	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
10	ABADA lucca	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
11	HAHN EVER	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
12	HU Simon	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	3%
13	LEE Shane Gunn	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
14	SHAPIRO Leo	1%	8%	29%	41%	20%	2%
15	SUH Jordan	2%	16%	38%	32%	11%	1%
16	LIU Caleb	6%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
17	RINALDI Benigno	-	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%
18	THOMAS Tre	5%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
19	CHIDAMBARAM Nivedh	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
20	MILLER Ari	20%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-
21	STYS Owen	1%	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%
22	LI Derek	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
23	ARGEMI Ot	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
24	KELLY Collin	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
25	LI Kent	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
26	ATA Kevin	5%	24%	38%	26%	7%	1%
26	HUANG Lucas	23%	48%	24%	5%	-	-
28	SHARMA Ayaan	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%
29	KAAKEH Taim	43%	44%	12%	1%	-	-
30	HWANG Jacob	35%	45%	17%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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