2025 OFC Grand Prix

Div II Mixed Épée

Saturday, March 15, 2025 at 12:00 PM

OLYMPIC FENCERS CLUB - Johns Creek, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NGUYEN Hubert	-	1%	9%	37%	50%	4%
2	RAVI Arjun	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
3	JEONG Arisu	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
3	DAVIDENKO Alexander	-	-	-	1%	16%	51%	32%
5	ERIZE Alvaro	-	-	-	7%	41%	52%
6	PATEL Kushal	-	1%	7%	29%	49%	15%
7	LIU Oscar	-	-	2%	14%	51%	29%	4%
8	KRIEGER Jack	-	1%	12%	38%	39%	9%
9	PAYNE Gareth	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
10	SHOUSHA Yassin	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
11	PETE Landon	4%	23%	39%	27%	7%	1%
12	DO Joshua	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
13	KIM Ian	2%	17%	44%	33%	5%	-	-
14	DONGES Anna	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
15	REDDY Daksh	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	3%
16	BRAND Andrew	2%	20%	40%	29%	8%	1%
17	BEDULLA Asher	8%	29%	36%	21%	5%	-
18	NGUYEN Wesley (Titus) V.	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
19	GUEVARA Bryan	3%	20%	36%	28%	11%	2%	-
20	MUNAGAPATI Vishwa	-	3%	13%	28%	33%	20%	5%
21	LIU Yunhao	4%	30%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
22	ERIZE Marcos	4%	46%	40%	10%	-	-	-
23	TUCKER Evan	3%	20%	38%	29%	8%	1%
24	ATON Dave	1%	14%	41%	35%	8%	-
25	SIGG Noah	18%	55%	24%	3%	-	-
26	MENON Rahul	8%	36%	40%	14%	2%	-
27	KAWALE Rachita	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-
28	SCORDINSKY Liam	4%	22%	44%	27%	3%	-	-
29	LEE Sean	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
30	KIM Sarah	9%	70%	20%	2%	-	-
31	KIM Lauren	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
32	PETERS Joelle	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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