St. Paddy's Slay at NKFA

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, March 15, 2025 at 4:30 PM

NKY Fencing Academy (NKFA) - Ludlow, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Jesse	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
2	MASON Alexander T.	-	-	-	2%	34%	63%
3	JONES Elijah	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
3	JONES Reilly	-	-	3%	23%	46%	28%
5	WILKINSON Derek H.	-	1%	4%	15%	31%	34%	15%
6	BETTS Jr Anthony P.	-	1%	10%	37%	40%	13%
7	PRIJATEL John R.	-	-	5%	29%	55%	11%
8	SAYLER Gordon	1%	9%	35%	46%	8%	-
9	TURNER Joshua	1%	5%	18%	32%	30%	13%	2%
10	NIXON Scott	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
11	BOGGESS Alexander	-	15%	54%	27%	4%	-
12	DAVIS Jennifer	4%	22%	39%	27%	7%	1%
13	KALAPASEV Nenad (Ned) (Ned) S.	-	-	1%	13%	60%	25%
14	LEWTON Grace	3%	14%	29%	31%	18%	5%	1%
15	LONG Erika	9%	28%	33%	21%	7%	1%	-
16	STAUBITZ Marc	17%	43%	33%	7%	-	-
17	FUCHS Robert	14%	40%	36%	10%	< 1%	-
18	YORK Joseph	-	9%	30%	38%	20%	3%
18	TRAN John	9%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
20	CARDENAS Nathan A.	-	7%	27%	39%	22%	4%
21	REED Dusty (Allen)	-	-	5%	30%	45%	20%
22	ECKEL Anson J.	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
22	HUCULAK Eerik	4%	28%	43%	22%	3%	-
24	METZ Evan	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	2%	-
25	FAENOVA Alexandra	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
26	TLUCHOWSKI Sam	61%	33%	5%	-	-	-
27	DUTTON Kitty	54%	44%	2%	-	-	-
28	LEDVINA Luke	< 1%	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
29	PIPPIN Jaiden	27%	49%	20%	3%	-	-
30	GILL Anhad	27%	46%	23%	3%	-	-
30	LAGONA Anna	15%	43%	35%	6%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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