Meade Hansford Anderson Memorial RYC/RCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Kinecta Soccer Center - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GREENSTEIN Viktor	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	LUC Cedric	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
3	CHEN Aaron	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
3	CHEUNG Evan	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
5	CHAN Troy Devon	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
6	WANG David	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
7	LIU Baichen (Matthew)	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	5%
8	DESAI Arthav	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	20%	5%
9	FU BRANDEN	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	39%
10	PARK Jayden	-	2%	10%	28%	37%	21%	2%
11	LEE Bill King	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	10%	1%
12	QI Zach	-	2%	11%	28%	36%	20%	4%
13	WU Kaiden	1%	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
14	SLOAN Ethan	-	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%	1%
15	DENG Aurik	8%	27%	34%	22%	7%	1%	-
16	FISCHER Noel	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	12%
17	LEE Jayden	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
18	WANG Darren	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
19	HAN Kyle	1%	7%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
20	YUEN Caleb	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
21	ZHANG Connery	5%	27%	38%	22%	7%	1%	-
22	LEI Isaac	8%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
23	SAHA Aryan	11%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
24	DING Orlando	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
25	LI Jason	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	22%	4%
26	KIM Leo	3%	21%	38%	27%	9%	2%	-
27	SAHA Aadi	7%	36%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
28	WANG Henrik	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	5%
29	ADAMS Jordan	1%	9%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
30	LVOVSKIY Roman	-	-	2%	12%	36%	42%	7%
31	TABANCAY Cole	-	1%	6%	20%	36%	29%	9%
32	LAM Ethan	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
33	JI Derek	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	7%	1%
34	ZHU yinxi	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
35	HIROTA Jackson	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
36	CHEN Donovan	6%	23%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
37	WEI Jonathan	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
37	LAD Anish	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
39	HIROTA Mitchell	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-	-
40	SUN alan	18%	37%	30%	12%	3%	-	-
40	XIN Ryan	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
42	DUBIN Jake	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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