Fortune SYC/RJCC & Y8

Y-10 Men's Saber

Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Ontario Convention Center - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG James	-	-	-	7%	47%	45%
2	CHUNG Evan	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
3	FU BRANDEN	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	QI Zach	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
5	DUFF Michael	-	-	4%	15%	34%	35%	12%
6	LVOVSKIY Roman	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
7	LAI Mars	-	-	1%	8%	39%	52%
8	SUN Alan	31%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
9	JI Derek	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	10%
10	PARK Jayden	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
11	TABANCAY Cole	-	-	1%	11%	52%	36%
12	YUAN Alan	-	-	4%	25%	52%	19%
13	FAKHRI Adrian	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
14	RAMAKRISHNA Arjun	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	4%
15	LUO Gavin	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	15%	2%
16	FAN Yuen	-	7%	29%	40%	20%	4%	-
17	LEE Hubert	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
18	WANG Henrik	-	1%	6%	24%	41%	24%	5%
19	DESAI Arthav	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
20	CHOI Theo	2%	16%	39%	34%	8%	1%
21	HEILMANN Christian	-	-	1%	8%	25%	41%	25%
22	WOO Slade	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
23	LOVELL Jackson	1%	13%	41%	37%	7%	-
24	CONCANNON Jackson	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
25	HEILMANN Caleb	-	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	14%
26	YANG Collin	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
27	DING Kyen	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	2%	-
28	LEE Aidan	2%	16%	45%	33%	5%	-
29	CHEN Donovan	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
30	ELSAYED Omar	4%	19%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
31	NOWAKOWSKI Zachary	15%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-
32	YANG Aegon	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
33	JIAO Lawrence	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
34	HUGHES-WILLIAMS Atticus A	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
35	LEE Ryan	7%	24%	34%	25%	9%	2%	-
36	QIAO Jason	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
37	HE Kyle	24%	49%	24%	4%	-	-
38	CHANG Allen	39%	45%	14%	2%	-	-
39	MALLARD Arthur	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
40	NG Jaden	21%	48%	25%	5%	-	-	-
41	LEI Isaac	2%	12%	33%	35%	15%	2%
42	CHAN Ethan	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
43	DAUM Billy	1%	14%	40%	35%	9%	1%
44	WEN Evan	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
45	LIN Rongcheng Noah	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
46	LEE Caleb	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
46	GOURJI Roman	20%	45%	28%	6%	-	-
48	ALLEVATO Luigi	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
49	LIU Jayden	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
50	CHEN Brian	42%	43%	13%	2%	-	-	-
51	JUNG Diego	42%	45%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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