Boston Fencing Club RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Ethan	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
2	CHENG Logan	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
3	XU Andy P.	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	LI Aaron	-	-	-	1%	20%	79%
5	WAYBRIGHT Matteo	-	4%	18%	40%	33%	5%
6	ZHAO Brian	-	2%	14%	33%	35%	14%	2%
7	LAO Kevin	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
8	GATES Combustion	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
9	CHO Xzander	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	21%
10	FROST Chayse	1%	10%	31%	39%	17%	2%
11	ONIK Ari N.	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
12	WANG Rory	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
13	JIN Andy	-	1%	8%	35%	49%	7%
14	WEI JR Shan	-	4%	19%	40%	32%	5%
15	HOU Gaven	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
16	CHA James	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
17	XU Nathan	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
18	PETINO Leonardo	1%	7%	26%	39%	22%	4%
18	BAKSHI Aman	-	2%	13%	36%	37%	12%
20	TANG Terry	-	-	3%	14%	36%	37%	10%
21	SUSANTO William	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%	1%
22	YANG David H.	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
23	ABRAMKIN Tim	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
24	JABLOKOV Roman	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
25	HU Daniel	5%	26%	39%	23%	6%	-
26	DIAZ Gabriel	-	7%	36%	43%	13%	1%
27	CHOU-ESTEBAN Pau	1%	12%	41%	37%	9%	-
28	HAN Alexander	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	19%	2%
29	REN Ryan	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
30	CHUN Zachary	9%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-	-
31	LI Jayden	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
32	WANG Luke	6%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-
33	ULYSSE Jacob	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
34	CHUN Alexander	41%	46%	11%	1%	-	-
35	BERETICH Brian	3%	24%	43%	24%	6%	-
36	WANG Zeyu	11%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
37	BLACK Henry	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%	-
38	REYES Yannik	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
39	BRILLANTES Luke	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	1%
40	MCCARTHY Hudson	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
41	HU Weijie	9%	40%	37%	12%	2%	-
42	LEE Aeden	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
43	FAN Sean	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%
44	AYYAGARI Abhiram	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
45	BERNARD Jonathan	30%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
46	ZHENG Austin	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
47	TIAN Dylan	30%	50%	18%	2%	-	-
47	CHAE Thomas Woojin	58%	35%	7%	-	-	-
49	MANCHALA Vedanth	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
50	CHENG Andrew	3%	28%	44%	21%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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