Wang Memorial ROC/RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Dallas Market Center MAIN HALL - Dallas, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PARKER Isaiah	-	-	2%	16%	53%	29%
2	TUMULA Arihaan	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
3	CORTRIGHT Edmund	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%	2%
3	SATHYAN Dev	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	6%
5	PARKS-GOOD Tyler	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
6	CHAUDHRY Aahil	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
7	MODI Rohan	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
8	LI Nathan	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
9	ZHAN ETHAN	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
10	GRIGORENKO Gleb E.	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	20%
11	LI Andy	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
12	RUAN Yichen	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
13	ABAD Mateo	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
13	DISPENZA Jayan	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
15	YUE Bryan	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
16	OLSON Joseph	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
17	LIU Austin	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	9%
18	CHO Joshua	17%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-
19	ALI Rayan	-	-	5%	22%	43%	29%
20	LIN Edison	30%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
21	ROBERTSON Marnix	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%
22	PLUMMER Kellan	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	6%
23	VEERAVALLI Pranav	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
24	KNYSH IURII	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-
25	DE LOS REYES Noah	25%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
26	JERKINS Gianni	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
27	CHEN Linus	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
28	KHAVKIN Alexander	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
28	PARADKAR Akshay	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
30	FRENCH Drake	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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