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North Texas Roundup SYC and Cadets

Cadet Men's Saber

Monday, September 2, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Irving, TX - Irving, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GREEN IV James (Bud)	-	-	3%	23%	47%	27%
2	POPE Nico	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
3	JEAN Noe T.	-	-	-	4%	20%	44%	33%
3	ERMAKOV Lev	-	-	4%	25%	46%	25%
5	MAGUIRE Matthew V.	-	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	13%
6	DU Gavin J.	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
7	NUMAN Yazan M.	-	-	2%	9%	27%	40%	22%
8	CHEONG Heonjae	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	1%
9	TONG ZACHARY	-	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	13%
10	CHON Taylor A.	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
11	NGUYEN Andrew	7%	31%	37%	19%	5%	< 1%	-
12	MENTA Varun	-	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%
13	RESHEIDAT Malik	-	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
14	KIM Alexander M.	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
15	SUSANTO Samuel (sammy)	-	6%	33%	40%	18%	3%	-
16	RHEE Ethan N.	-	-	4%	22%	41%	27%	5%
17	ZHOU Brian	-	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	3%
18	BONSELL Vance	-	6%	27%	41%	22%	3%
19	JUNG Junhwan	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
20	CHEN Christopher	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
21	YANG Ethan	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	4%
22	YANG Duncan	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
23	TANN Justin	-	1%	16%	43%	33%	8%
24	BANNERMAN Andrew J.	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	7%	-
25	MARICONDA Christopher	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%
26	HWANG Ryan C.	1%	14%	46%	31%	7%	1%
27	GHENEA George Philipe	-	3%	22%	41%	27%	7%	1%
28	LU Caleb Q.	1%	9%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
29	CONINE Tanner C.	-	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
30	HUANG Alexander C.	1%	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	-
31	KOSURI Harsha	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
32	LEWIS John G.	7%	32%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
33	BULL Anderson	-	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%
34	FOWBLE Chance	11%	51%	30%	7%	1%	-
35	LOPEZ Lucas M.	2%	21%	40%	28%	7%	1%
36	WANG Andy	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
37	CHU Edrick	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
38	POLSER John	2%	15%	37%	33%	11%	1%
39	LI Matthew	47%	42%	10%	1%	-	-
40	CADAMBE Rishi	44%	45%	10%	1%	-	-	-
41	ZHU Charlie	54%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
42	ALEMAN Benjamin	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
43	RAJAN Advait	28%	57%	13%	1%	-	-
43	YE Joshua	66%	29%	4%	-	-	-
45	XU Adler	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-
46	BOWMAN James	35%	55%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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