Division 1/Para Championships + April NAC

Vet-40 Men's Épée

Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Los Angeles Convention Center - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TSINIS Alexander E.	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
2	YAMASAKI Kyle A.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
3	HALLMAN Nicholas (Nick) J.	-	1%	8%	34%	42%	15%
3	MANDOKI Sandor I.	-	1%	13%	35%	37%	14%
5	LIOU Solomon	-	3%	24%	45%	25%	2%
6	PHO Eric	-	1%	9%	37%	40%	12%
7	HURME Tommi K.	-	-	-	2%	15%	48%	35%
8	BRONZO Justin G.	-	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
9	MACZIK Adam W.	-	-	-	2%	13%	48%	37%
10	STEPHAN Jens	-	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	7%
11	ZUCKER Noah L.	-	-	2%	17%	45%	35%
12	HOLTZ Donovan K.	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
13	OLIVERIUS Joseph W.	-	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	7%
14	CARTER Austin L.	-	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%
15	MAKMATOV Vadim	-	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
16	REED David	8%	45%	36%	10%	1%	-	-
17	STOCK Jordan	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%	-
18	COX Matthew T.	-	-	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%
19	FIEDERLEIN Andrew M.	2%	20%	45%	26%	6%	1%	-
20	GORMLEY Robert	-	1%	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%
21	CHANDLER Paul F.	-	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	21%
22	MENDOZA Zandro	-	1%	21%	40%	29%	9%	1%
23	CHRISTY Peter C.	1%	12%	43%	35%	9%	-
24	MCNALLY Thomas J.	15%	46%	32%	7%	1%	-
25	HORAN Sean T.	-	2%	17%	43%	35%	3%
26	OZANNE Jeffrey S.	9%	50%	33%	8%	1%	-
27	CHU Brandon A.	5%	30%	47%	16%	2%	-
28	CHI Kai-Hung	27%	62%	10%	1%	-	-	-
29	CHO Hans	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
30	FERKO Philip J.	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%
31	XUE Chenming	49%	42%	9%	1%	-	-
32	VALENTINE Shem	52%	40%	8%	-	-	-
33	COLE Matthew	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	3%	-
34	SLOAN Ryan	24%	52%	22%	3%	-	-
35	CHIANG Andrew	5%	26%	39%	24%	6%	-	-
36	LOCASALE Nicholas A.	3%	17%	36%	32%	12%	1%	-
37	MIZRAHI Meir	72%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-
38	HUANG Jen-Chieh	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-
39	HORN Evans	61%	35%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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