6th Annual Precision RYC and RJC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PINCHENG Yao	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	31%
2	ZHANG Jacob	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
3	ONG Nicholas	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	13%
3	BAE Eugene	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
5	CHOI Ethan	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	28%
6	TSOI Spencer	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
7	UPENDER West	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%
8	PE Noah	2%	13%	33%	35%	16%	2%
9	HONG Edwin	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
10	LEE Abin	2%	11%	28%	35%	21%	5%
11	TSUI Raedyn Ho Hin	4%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
12	ZHAN Kevin	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
13	BLUNCK Kristof	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
14	YE Jerry	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
15	KIM Jonah	-	2%	11%	27%	35%	21%	4%
16	WANG sicheng	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
17	FOY Grant	2%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
18	KUNTSEVICH Ivan I.	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
19	SHORTER David Alexander	39%	40%	17%	4%	< 1%	-	-
20	GUDIMETLA Siddhanth	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	-
21	ZHOU Shawn	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
22	LO Ernest	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-
23	PONTOPPIDAN Erik	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
24	YEE Colin	4%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
25	SMITH Jeremiah	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
26	FLANAGAN Miles	1%	7%	24%	34%	25%	8%	1%
27	CHEN Jason	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
28	KARPMAN Benny	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
29	MARQUEZ Jacob	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
30	CHANG Nathan	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
31	LEE Christopher	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
32	TRUJILLO Jonah	20%	39%	29%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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