6th Annual Precision RYC and RJC

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	-	1%	12%	88%
2	HSU Kaylin	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
3	SUN Emily	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	74%
3	KIM Sydney	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
5	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	-	4%	31%	65%
6	VILLARAMA Kara	-	-	5%	22%	41%	29%	3%
7	ZHOU Joi	-	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%
8	ANDONIAN Lauren	-	-	8%	35%	46%	10%
9	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
10	WILLIAMSON Tessa	-	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
11	ZONG Melody	-	2%	12%	34%	37%	14%	1%
12	CHOI Kailyn	-	-	6%	26%	46%	22%
13	TAN Shouyin	2%	16%	38%	31%	10%	1%	-
14	HSIAO Ariya	-	3%	28%	47%	21%	2%
15	HUGHES Liv	-	3%	20%	42%	32%	3%
16	DESAI Esha	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	18%	1%
17	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	-	6%	24%	42%	26%	2%
18	DAI Iris Yuyang	-	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
19	XIA Isabella	2%	21%	41%	28%	7%	-
20	MONAT Jennifer	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
21	FAN Sophia	-	9%	42%	38%	10%	1%
22	LIN Allison	9%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
23	FANG Kelervia	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
24	YONG Rosalind	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
25	LAY Apollonia	3%	18%	40%	31%	8%	1%
26	SAH Madeleine	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
27	IDANAWANG Madison	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
28	GUO Audrey	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%	-
29	HAN Gian	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
30	LEE Abigail	19%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-
31	CHANG Janelle	1%	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
32	KIM Natalie	10%	42%	35%	11%	2%	-	-
33	KULKARNI myra	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-
33	LI Chelsea	1%	15%	38%	35%	11%	-
35	WANG Ellen	59%	34%	6%	1%	-	-	-
36	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	7%	-
37	KIM Lauren	3%	24%	41%	26%	6%	-
38	GUTIERREZ Gia	46%	45%	9%	1%	-	-
39	IDANAWANG Allison	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
40	CHUN Ami	36%	45%	17%	3%	-	-	-
41	HE Ashley	3%	20%	38%	30%	9%	1%
42	VOROBIEV Alexandra	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
43	CANTON Sara	20%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
44	BROWN Favianna	35%	54%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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