San Antonio Cup III

Mixed Épée

Saturday, April 26, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Olympian Fencing Club - San Antonio, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PETROSEWICZ Thomas (TJ) ".	-	-	-	9%	43%	48%
2	THAYER Jake T.	-	-	1%	20%	79%
3	SLESS Alexander Y.	-	-	-	2%	20%	58%	20%
3	LIOZNYANSKY Miron	1%	23%	54%	20%	1%
5	HALLMAN Nicholas (Nick) J.	-	-	1%	11%	52%	32%	5%
6	ZUBECK Dominic	-	-	1%	12%	43%	43%
7	HURME Tommi K.	-	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
8	FEINGERSCH Ariav (Ari) B.	-	-	2%	21%	53%	25%
9	MCALISTER Ian	-	4%	31%	56%	8%
10	LIBSON Tazman	-	-	1%	8%	34%	44%	13%
11	LU Haoyang	2%	21%	56%	18%	2%	-
12	WOODALL Ian L.	-	1%	12%	43%	34%	9%	1%
13	WIEGAND-SHAHANI Braden M.	-	3%	18%	41%	33%	5%	-
14	TIEMANN Landen	-	1%	13%	45%	37%	4%
15	OBREBSKI Kevin	8%	55%	32%	4%	-
16	LESCURE Dimitri	-	2%	14%	44%	37%	4%
17	SAYLOR Harrison G.	-	-	3%	22%	44%	27%	4%
18	RASMUSSEN Eric	11%	40%	37%	10%	1%	-
19	YANG Zeph	-	1%	15%	52%	29%	4%
20	POHL Philip	1%	20%	57%	20%	2%	-	-
21	BOURDEAU Emily B.	1%	25%	45%	25%	4%	-
22	PEREZ Daniel	1%	12%	39%	36%	11%	1%	-
23	KANASKAR Ila	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%
24	RILEY Christian	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
25	ABAD Carlos	78%	20%	1%	-	-
26	CASTANO Helena	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
27	ABAD Mateo	32%	53%	14%	1%	-	-
28	SADLER Daniel	18%	57%	24%	2%	-	-	-
29	MASOR Max	55%	37%	7%	1%	-	-	-
30	ULRICH Jacob	47%	45%	8%	-	-	-
31	ALVAREZ Natalie	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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