California State High School Fencing Championships

High School Men's Foil

Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Chaminade High School - West Hills, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DINSAY Kristjan	-	-	-	7%	40%	53%
2	YI William W.	-	-	-	-	2%	19%	80%
3	KUNTSEVICH Ivan I.	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
3	PONTOPPIDAN Erik	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
5	DACKO Nolan	3%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
6	BLUNCK Kristof	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%	2%
7	FLANAGAN Miles	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
8	LEE Mason	-	1%	11%	33%	38%	16%	1%
9	TRUJILLO Jonah	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
10	VARIDIREDDY Suhan	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	2%
11	YOUNG Luke	10%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
12	SMITH Jeremiah	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
13	CHARETTE Alex	-	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	-
14	SHORTER David Alexander	3%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%
15	TSAO Holden	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
16	KNIGHT Rollan	-	5%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
17	MARQUEZ Jacob	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	12%
18	ROSE Jacob W.	1%	12%	37%	37%	12%	-
19	JEREZ PINE Luca	-	2%	20%	44%	30%	4%
20	TONEF Christian	30%	49%	19%	2%	-	-
21	CHARETTE Matthew	1%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%
22	MCCARVILL Cooper	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
23	KIM Sam	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	7%
24	GONZALEZ Elias	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
25	TEWNER Jonathan	1%	10%	31%	37%	17%	3%
26	KANT Jasper	26%	50%	21%	3%	-	-	-
27	DOMINGUEZ Abram	33%	46%	18%	3%	-	-
28	GREENBURG Jackson	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
28	TORRES A Leonardo	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
30	STASHWICK Tilly	55%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
31	ARIAS CALIX Franklin	41%	44%	13%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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