Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC/RYC

Div II Women's Épée

Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LOBANOVA Varvara	-	-	1%	11%	38%	49%
2	KLAUSZ Izabella	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
3	BOTNER Olivia	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	QIAN JIAYU	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
5	GOLIYAD Lisa	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
6	COLELLA Lauren	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	5%
7	SHEIKH PAREE	2%	18%	40%	30%	9%	1%
8	MIDYANY Viktoriya	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
9	FOMINA Polina	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	14%
10	GOOCH Anna V.	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
10	NGUYEN Celena	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
12	MONITTO Malina	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
13	ZAYKO Aveline	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	14%
14	QUADRI Saira	9%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
15	ZELJKOVIC Anastasija	3%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
16	HU Chloe	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
17	IVANUSHKINA Alisa	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
18	ZUCKER Emily A.	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	7%
19	MILLER Cassandra	6%	29%	38%	21%	6%	1%
20	HSU Catherine	60%	33%	6%	1%	-	-
21	SCHLEE Selma	-	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
22	ZHENG Kristen	2%	24%	41%	26%	7%	-
23	PHELAN Gabrielle	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
24	ALVAREZ Martine	12%	42%	34%	11%	1%	-
25	HAMMONDS Carissa	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
26	DUNNE Jessica	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
27	PARK Suhjee	49%	38%	11%	2%	-	-
28	IVANOV Angela-Sophie	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
29	GEFFNER Olivia	< 1%	7%	26%	39%	24%	4%
30	DIBENEDETTI Isabella	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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