Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC/RYC

Div II Men's Saber

Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ABDULMANOV Ayrat	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	56%
2	WONG Reagan	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	< 1%
3	STAMIS Kyle	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
3	ORTHMANN Tristin	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%
5	RIGGINS Littleton K.	-	-	1%	14%	53%	32%
6	LI Cooper	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
7	LAZARTE Gabriel	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
8	WONG Caleb W.	-	2%	10%	27%	37%	21%	3%
9	LOO Jason	-	-	5%	24%	45%	25%
10	CIEMINS Henry	-	5%	21%	41%	27%	6%
11	CHENG Brandon	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	10%
12	RYAN Kai	-	-	1%	8%	45%	46%
13	LIGH Checed	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
14	KOLODNER Michael B.	-	2%	16%	43%	38%	1%
15	DE SIENA Salvatore	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
16	ZHANG Richard	7%	29%	41%	21%	3%	-
17	CUSUMANO Neal	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
18	DREYER William	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	1%
19	BANSAL Krishiv	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
20	WANG Theodore	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
21	HELD Lev	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%	-
22	CHIEN Nolan	11%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-
23	MARTINEZ Luke	33%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
24	SAYAR Luke	1%	8%	28%	41%	20%	3%
24	MARTINSON Torm	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
26	CUNLIFFE Sebastian	6%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
27	JIANG Terence	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
28	SCHLESINGER Nathan	-	-	< 1%	7%	37%	56%
29	WOLMART Zander	1%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
30	LEVY Jack	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%	-
31	DUNN John (Jack) F.	-	-	4%	19%	37%	32%	7%
32	NIEBERGALL Jaxson	6%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
33	JAGANNATHAN Ajay	20%	42%	29%	7%	1%	-
34	ARORA Pranav	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
35	KOENIGSBERG Jared	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%
36	FARLEY Kevin	6%	28%	41%	21%	3%	-
37	YANG Byron	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
38	TANG Jeremy	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%
39	JIN Adam	14%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
40	MITCHELL Eric A.	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
40	EASLEY Dallas	16%	41%	34%	9%	1%	-
42	NOVOJILOV Daniel	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
43	HOUSER Johnathan	20%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
44	WITHAM Leo	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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