Fairfax Challenge ROC(DV1A, DV2, VET), RJCC, RYC & PARA

Cadet Men's Saber

Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUCHWAJDA Alex	-	-	6%	32%	61%
2	GUREVICH Benjamin	-	-	1%	8%	25%	41%	26%
3	CHANG Ethan	-	1%	11%	37%	39%	12%
3	VALENCIA Jose	-	-	1%	13%	43%	42%
5	BALU Aedan	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
6	YI Andrew	-	3%	17%	36%	34%	10%
7	PERRIN Leo	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
8	JOHNSON Leland	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	15%
9	BREUER Daniel	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
10	BUKZIN Alan	3%	19%	41%	32%	5%
11	BENE Andrew	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
12	BADMUS Joshua	-	1%	9%	25%	36%	24%	5%
13	HENRY Cadel	-	2%	16%	41%	33%	7%
14	CHAWLA Abhishek	4%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
15	D'AMELJ Edoardo	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
16	WANG Mason	13%	38%	36%	12%	1%
17	SLAVNOV Anton	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	24%	6%
18	RINALDI Savio	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
19	LIU Jayden	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	3%
20	PIPKE Garrett	12%	36%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
21	BENE Paul	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
22	TOSCANO Sebastian	12%	37%	37%	13%	1%
23	KANE Kiran	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
24	HOWERTON Beckett	21%	42%	29%	7%	-
25	PLATT Michael (Trace)	2%	19%	45%	27%	6%	-
26	MISHULOVICH Ronen	34%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-
27	LIAO Sirui	2%	14%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
28	MOON Noah	3%	15%	32%	31%	15%	4%	-
29	SAYAR Luke	1%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	1%
30	BRAMLETT Myer	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
31	HUANG Anthony	33%	47%	18%	2%	-	-
32	PEREZ Nicolas S	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
33	BROOKS Theo	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
34	EVELYN Wyatt	32%	48%	18%	2%	-	-
36	OTT William	30%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
36	SIMMONS Evan	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
38	BONGIORNO Wesley	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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