Fairfax Challenge ROC(DV1A, DV2, VET), RJCC, RYC & PARA

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SU Landon	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
2	DECK Tyson	-	-	5%	25%	48%	22%
3	GERSTMANN Max T.	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
3	VALENCIA Jose	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	18%	3%
5	TIAGI Daniel	-	-	-	2%	12%	41%	45%
6	FELDMAN Drew	-	-	1%	13%	44%	41%
7	POSY Daniel	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
8	KO Zuriel	-	-	2%	11%	33%	41%	13%
9	BALU Aedan	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
10	YAN William	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
11	SHIM Tristan	1%	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
12	PORTER Dupree	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
13	SUN Ziyao	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
14	LIN Felix	-	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%
15	FENG Brendan	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	17%	2%
16	TIAGI George	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	24%	3%
17	TOSCANO Sebastian	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	< 1%	-
18	RINALDI Savio	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
19	PARCELL Colby	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
20	REHM Liam	1%	10%	38%	38%	12%	1%
21	COUNTS Nicholas	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
22	VLASENKO Bohdan	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
23	BADMUS Joshua	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
24	RADY-PENTEK Charles A.	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	34%
25	YADAV Lakshya	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	3%
26	BENE Paul	13%	50%	30%	6%	-	-
27	VEDRE Neil	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%
28	BRAMLETT Myer	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
29	BENE Andrew	9%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
30	CUNLIFFE Sebastian	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	3%	-
31	BENSON Jacob	-	8%	35%	41%	14%	1%
32	STRUCKER Rocco	12%	42%	33%	11%	2%	-
33	PERRIN Leo	2%	15%	32%	32%	16%	4%	-
34	COPP Max	5%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
35	ALDANA Jeffery	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
36	VISH Manyu	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
37	PEREZ Nicolas S	20%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
38	WEST-BEY Ahmad	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
39	SIMMONS Evan	64%	31%	4%	-	-	-
40	BOTERO Sidney	35%	41%	19%	5%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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