SAS Saber D & Under

Div III Mixed Saber

Saturday, May 24, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Salle Auriol Seattle - Seattle, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NAIR Sujit	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
2	MILLER Charlie	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	13%
3	COPPA Neal	-	3%	18%	40%	32%	8%
3	YANG Caroline	-	-	6%	26%	44%	24%
5	VALENTINE Rhys	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
6	HONG Hunter	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
7	XIA Daniel	10%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-
8	RAMAN Indira	-	4%	27%	53%	15%	1%
9	MA Yanjie	-	1%	6%	27%	43%	22%
10	VACCA Giovanni	-	1%	9%	35%	41%	15%
11	BEELER Parker	8%	36%	39%	15%	2%	-
12	ARMSTRONG Doug	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
13	THIBODEAU Alex	12%	33%	33%	17%	4%	1%	-
14	STATEN Joseph	-	2%	9%	25%	34%	23%	6%
15	RASHELL Simon	-	3%	13%	28%	32%	19%	4%
16	LOWE Devon	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
17	MCCLURE Logan	-	9%	32%	39%	18%	2%
18	HOLMES Sabrina	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
19	ZUG Kiersten A.	-	3%	19%	37%	31%	9%
19	NELSON Henry	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
21	DEGEN Anita L.	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
22	BECK Mica	1%	5%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%
23	MOULTON Andrew	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
24	SUNIDJA Indira	3%	24%	49%	21%	3%	-
25	LEE River L	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
26	REITER Michael L.	-	4%	18%	34%	32%	11%
27	DAVISSON Zack	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
28	DALELA Neel	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
29	TING Alexander	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
30	WHELAN Quinn	11%	34%	36%	15%	3%	-
31	WONG Lucia	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-
32	WONG Alice	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
33	PENG Gregory	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
34	ALLEN Oliver	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
35	HODZIC Hana	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
36	GUEA Mark	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-
36	LOWREY Zola	14%	54%	26%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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