Premier Winter RYC/RCC Tournament

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 11:30 AM

Burlington, NJ - Burlington, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GILSON Lucas B.	-	1%	7%	30%	45%	17%
2	SHOMAN Noah	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	20%
3	HUANG Ethan F.	-	-	5%	23%	38%	27%	6%
3	ZHANG Jeffrey	-	-	2%	13%	37%	39%	9%
5	DVORIN Jack	-	1%	4%	17%	33%	33%	12%
6	HUANG Connor	-	4%	22%	43%	27%	5%
7	SHOMAN Zachary	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	32%
8	HUANG Maxwell H.	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
9	MALONE Gregory D.	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	6%
10	ZHENG Edward L.	-	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
11	HUANG Alex F.	-	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
12	DENBROEDER Ronald (Mackie)	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
13	DENG Andrew	-	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
14	SHINCHUK Daniel	-	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
16	SULLIVAN Aidan J.	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
17	WAXLER Seth B.	-	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	10%
18	CHEN Evan P.	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
19	DUCKETT Myles	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
20	ZHAO Lucas	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
21	LEONARD Charles	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	24%	6%
22	VARUKATTY-GAFOOR Sohil	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
23	WANG Robert	-	1%	12%	33%	36%	16%	2%
24	CHUANG Tristan	-	5%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%
25	ANAND Sahil Z.	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
26	ZENG Noah	28%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
27	LIU Lawrence	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%	2%
28	OH Triton	3%	27%	42%	23%	5%	-
29	KOVACH Jonah F.	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
30	CHENG Cody	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
31	LIU Mingyang Ryan	7%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
32	LIN Steve	7%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
33	WEBER Mattias A.	-	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	3%
33	BROU Inkosi	-	2%	9%	25%	34%	23%	6%
35	PANDEY Neil	5%	28%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
36	MEDVEDEV Michail D.	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
37	CHENG Hong	20%	46%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
38	ALI Rahman	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
39	LAU Justin Y.	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
40	CLARK Gabriel	-	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%
41	LIN Hadrian	28%	48%	21%	4%	-	-	-
42	WASSERMAN Aiden	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
44	CHANG Yuyang	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
45	YAO Kevin	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
46	HAPP Braeden	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
46	SIRICHENKO David	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-	-
48	YUAN William	43%	47%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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