Pleasanton City Trophy @ Bay Area Fencing Club

Y-12 Mixed Foil

Sunday, June 15, 2025 at 12:00 PM

BAY AREA FENCING CLUB - Pleasanton, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	YANG Steve	-	-	2%	23%	76%
2	SHENOY sean	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	3%
3	KAJITA Grayson	-	-	1%	14%	44%	41%
3	YAN Aaron	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
5	KIM Parker	-	4%	30%	48%	18%
6	MA Isabelle	-	3%	27%	59%	11%
7	YU Jinyuan	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
8	AGARWAL Jagrav	-	11%	40%	38%	10%
9	LAM Dorris Yandor	-	-	4%	23%	50%	23%
10	GU Evan	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
11	JIN Jiyuan	2%	37%	51%	10%	-
12	RAJ Yojith	1%	10%	34%	41%	15%
13	LI Lief	-	10%	41%	38%	10%
14	PAWAR Sanvi	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
15	JUSON Julianne Lauren	14%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
16	CHUNG Charlotte	3%	42%	44%	11%	-
17	LIU Aiden	-	1%	16%	47%	37%
18	HO Cameron	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
19	LUO Olivia	2%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
20	SOUSA Lauren	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
21	SINGH Reyaansh	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
22	KO Adeline	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%
23	HII Brian	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%	1%
24	XU Benjamin	15%	54%	26%	4%	-
25	KIM Rylie	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
26	TANG Ming-Hao (Audrey)	80%	19%	1%	-	-
27	SNYDER Jude	64%	31%	4%	-	-
28	FAN Vivian	5%	47%	39%	9%	-
29	KAUDER Rourke	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
30	ZENG Cayden	1%	9%	27%	36%	23%	5%
31	SUN Lucas	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
33	LUO Derren	11%	37%	38%	13%	1%	-
34	YANG Claire	86%	14%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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