Western Washington Foil/Epee Challenge #6

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, June 15, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Salle Auriol Seattle - Seattle, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SPROWLES Cameron D.	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
2	MAKMATOV Vadim	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
3	KILUK Andrew	-	-	3%	21%	47%	28%
3	WELDON Benjamin	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
5	LU Jacob	-	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
6	KIM Teo	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
7	OLSON Kevin	7%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
8	WU Alistair	-	1%	21%	46%	27%	5%
9	WEISE Eli S.	-	-	3%	22%	46%	28%
10	DESSAUER Tobyn M.	-	-	4%	18%	38%	31%	9%
10	DEMPSEY Connor	-	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
12	KHRISSANOV Peter	-	6%	41%	39%	12%	1%
13	MALAHE Michael	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
14	ARMES Jonas	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%	-
15	VARNEY John R.	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	9%
16	WEGENER Soren	3%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
17	LEWIS Michael	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
18	BU Xianchen	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	11%
19	FABBRO Andrew	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	5%
20	LEE Tobias (Toby) T.	-	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	22%
21	HU zhe	-	1%	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%
22	WAI Andreas	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
23	KRYLTSOV Greg	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%
24	ST.CLAIRE-KING Tenzin	-	4%	33%	40%	19%	4%	-
25	BACON Corban	39%	54%	7%	-	-	-
26	CHAKRABORTY Zorian	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
27	BRACCO Cameron	31%	59%	9%	1%	-	-	-
28	BENTLEY-INOUYE Evan	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
28	NETTLETON Lewis	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
30	VAVURIS Nicolas G.	48%	45%	6%	-	-	-
31	RYAN Schuyler	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
32	CHUN Joseph	58%	39%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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