Portland RJCC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, August 23, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	NEICE William	-	-	3%	20%	45%	33%
2	LIPPMAN Sam	-	-	-	6%	39%	55%
3	WEI Winston	-	4%	21%	41%	29%	6%
3	HERNANDEZ BERRON Salvador	-	-	9%	34%	41%	15%
5	PARK Jayden	-	7%	29%	43%	21%
6	WONG Braxton	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
7	BEDWORTH Alistair	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
8	WEI-NAVARRO Augustus	-	9%	34%	41%	16%
9	BI Ryan	-	-	2%	19%	54%	24%
10	TOYOFUKU Ethan	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	5%
11	HOLCOMB Alexander	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	3%
12	HARRIS Julien	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
13	GOWDA Sumeru	1%	12%	41%	38%	8%	-
14	PUSHKIN HUANG Yam	-	1%	17%	41%	33%	8%
15	SU Preston	-	13%	38%	37%	11%
16	ZHUO Henry	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
17	SU Desmond	-	5%	36%	41%	16%	2%
18	BHUPATHIRAJU Arjun	1%	14%	42%	35%	7%	-
19	PAINTER Zachary	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
20	RYU GREYSON	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	-
21	SUNDSTROM Wren	2%	28%	43%	23%	4%
22	CHOI Elliot	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
23	HUANG Tianche	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	5%
24	SERBAN Aaron	79%	20%	1%	-	-	-
25	SANCHEZ Mateo	40%	45%	13%	1%	-	-
26	CHANG Austin	26%	50%	21%	3%	-	-
27	MARSH Wyatt	87%	13%	1%	-	-
28	THOMAS Noah	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
29	FRIEDEN Quinn	14%	66%	19%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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