Star Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Danvers Indoor Sports - DANVERS, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BING Charlotte	-	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
2	LI Joy	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
3	WANG DINA C.	-	-	1%	10%	41%	47%
3	PUTHOFF Olivia	-	-	2%	21%	76%
5	JIANG Chloe	-	-	-	2%	23%	75%
6	ZHILKOV Anya	-	3%	15%	37%	34%	10%
7	MCFARLANE Asha	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
8	DE CASTRO Kai	-	-	5%	28%	48%	18%
9	ZHU Audrey	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	-
10	ZHANG Caroline	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%	-
11	ZHENG Annalyn	-	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
12	BO Iris	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
13	GOODMAN Carden	-	6%	26%	43%	23%	2%
14	LUO lucy	-	3%	23%	46%	24%	3%
15	SHANG Arianna	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	19%	1%
16	GE Deanna	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%	-
17	KOESTERS Cecilie	16%	40%	33%	10%	-
18	HAFEZ Sahar	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	19%	2%
19	SHUTZER Lily	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	15%	1%
20	IWERSEN Marte	-	-	2%	12%	34%	40%	12%
21	VO Evelyn	1%	10%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
22	CHAN Kaitlyn	9%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-
23	KOESTERS Florentine	7%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
24	KIRBY Emelie	17%	41%	33%	9%	-
25	LEO Jenna	-	4%	20%	42%	31%	3%
26	WANG Wenxi	11%	39%	36%	12%	1%	-
27	ELLISON Ingrid	5%	27%	41%	22%	5%	-
28	SUN Erin	6%	27%	42%	23%	2%
29	HONG Mabel	1%	16%	46%	30%	6%	-
30	CHUNG Stella	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
31	YIN Chloe	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
32	MCCLELLAN Florence	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
33	BENNETT Emi	4%	24%	42%	25%	5%	-
34	GENG Emma	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
35	TEE Cymbeline	22%	52%	23%	3%	-	-
37	HUDSON Sophie	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
38	LIAW Audrey	10%	34%	39%	16%	1%
39	OTTAVIANO Maris	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
40	LU Sophia	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
41	GONG Maggie	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
42	COMORA Elena	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
43	IRWIN Juliet	52%	41%	7%	-	-	-
44	ZHU Alicia	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
45	CLOUD Chrystie	14%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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