Star Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Danvers Indoor Sports - DANVERS, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KHANNA Adamantis	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	71%
2	ZALETAEV Jacob	-	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	5%
3	KARAVAS Nicholas	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
3	WANG Edward	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	23%
5	KOREN George	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
6	BROOKS Drake	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
7	TITOV Zachary	-	2%	12%	33%	37%	15%	1%
8	VIDREVICH David	-	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	3%
9	LAU Kyrus	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
10	TAYCHER Aaron	-	1%	7%	29%	47%	17%
11	BURENKOV Matthew	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	9%	-
12	MAKLIN David	2%	15%	37%	35%	10%	1%
13	CHAVAN Aditya	1%	5%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%
14	KOREN David	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
15	SOCHNIKOV Jacob	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
17	SHAPIRO Leo	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
18	RISMAN Edward	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-
19	CHEN Brian	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
20	RIVERATAN Darshan	2%	14%	37%	33%	12%	2%	-
21	GAO Francis	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
22	SOMANI Aarav	27%	48%	21%	4%	-	-	-
23	BALBALE Zayd	7%	25%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
24	CHEN Tyler	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
25	HOWARTH Hayes	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
26	LEIGH Brayden	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
27	MOTOV Max	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	20%	4%
28	CIECIEREGA MATTHEW	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
29	CUSSON William	3%	19%	40%	30%	8%	1%
30	DMYTRUK Alexander	4%	23%	36%	26%	9%	2%	-
31	MALEK Zak	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
32	KRISHNAN Arjun	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
33	PALERMO Evan	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
34	LEE Weston	42%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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