The Durkan Rooster RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 11:15 AM

Factory 220 - Passaic, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KRAHE Annika	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
2	XING Melly	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
3	LI Christina	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	51%
3	CAO Amelie	-	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
5	ZHENG Annalyn	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	26%	5%
6	PHAN Logan	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
6	GENG Emma	-	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
8	CHOI Cara	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	12%
9	ZHU Alivia	-	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	13%
10	MURPHY Genevieve	-	1%	6%	20%	36%	30%	8%
10	HOU Xu	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
12	KOESTERS Cecilie	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%	1%
13	LIN Zhishan	-	-	2%	9%	28%	40%	22%
14	CHO Olivia	-	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
15	CHAN Kaitlyn	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%
16	PAEK Mila	2%	11%	28%	34%	19%	5%	1%
17	FAN Melody	2%	12%	30%	33%	18%	5%	< 1%
18	YOUM Amelia	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
19	BAULIN Zoya	-	-	1%	9%	32%	45%	13%
19	HUDSON Sophie	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
21	ENRIQUEZ Bianca Perla	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
22	KOESTERS Florentine	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
23	LU Sophia	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
24	BALIN Sophia	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	2%
25	JAZWINSKI Ivy	1%	5%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
26	HEMPHILL Mia	1%	9%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
27	WU Charlotte	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	1%
28	CLOUD Chrystie	2%	17%	37%	30%	11%	2%	-
29	TEE Cymbeline	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%	-
30	KIM Lael	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
31	JIN Emily	22%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
32	ZHU Alicia	17%	45%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
33	LOBO Sophie	9%	35%	37%	15%	3%	-	-
34	GOMEZ Amelia	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
35	PAEK Ellie	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
36	VO Evelyn	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	12%	2%
37	LIANG Jasmine	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
38	SEO Celine	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-	-
39	DAVIS Gabriella	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-	-
40	BROWN Katelyn	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
41	WEINER Charlotte	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
42	PIERSIG Eleanor	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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