10th Annual Orange and Blue

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	IRWIN Peter	-	-	-	1%	19%	80%
2	MUMMIDI Rishi	-	10%	37%	43%	9%
3	CHENG Thomas	-	-	6%	34%	59%
3	TYSON Charlie	-	2%	16%	43%	31%	7%
5	CLAYTON Robert	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
6	FREY Wayne N.	1%	8%	29%	39%	19%	3%
7	FLITMAN Gabrielle	-	4%	21%	43%	28%	4%
8	CARRERO Quentin	30%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
9	FERREIRA DE MELO Adriana	-	1%	11%	37%	43%	8%
10	DUPREE Thomas	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
11	SEEDS Aidan	1%	11%	33%	37%	16%	2%
12	ADIBZADEH Mehrdad	3%	30%	45%	20%	2%
13	HERARD Weiman	4%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
14	VAN NIMWEGEN Nicholas	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
15	WAGMAN Robert S.	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	17%
16	MCFARLAND John G.	-	13%	41%	37%	9%	-
17	SIENRA Xabier	-	6%	37%	43%	13%	-
18	SLOTER Lewis E.	-	2%	16%	42%	37%	2%
19	LEWIS Rachel	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	2%
20	KARPF Jonah	10%	39%	39%	11%	1%	-
21	QUADRI Saira	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-
22	HEINZE Luke H.	3%	33%	45%	17%	2%
23	NARANJO Andrew	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
24	BARRETT John	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
25	PEREVORUKHOV Ivan	6%	37%	42%	13%	2%	-
26	PHAM Hailey	61%	39%	-	-	-	-
27	HART Justin	75%	22%	2%	-	-
28	GUADAMUZ Cesar	12%	45%	33%	9%	1%	-
28	COLLINS Hannah	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.