The Virginia Tech Open

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 9:00 AM

VT RecSports Field House - Blacksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KEE Andrew L.	-	-	-	-	8%	91%
2	PRICE Owen	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
3	POWERS Meredith R.	-	-	7%	36%	42%	15%
3	ISAACSON Bjorn	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
5	HINDS David E.	-	-	-	6%	58%	36%
6	SINGH Meet	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	-
6	URBANSKI Logan	-	1%	7%	29%	44%	19%
8	CHANG Xavier	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%	-
9	OLSON Emerson	-	-	1%	10%	47%	42%
10	TSENG Lucas	7%	32%	41%	17%	3%	-
11	EDRALIN II Chadwick Q.	-	-	1%	13%	51%	35%
12	ALTON Abigail	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
13	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	9%
14	CHANG Zane	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
15	CONANT Aidan	1%	6%	22%	39%	28%	5%
16	BORAN Connor	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%	-
17	HAVERSON Rana	11%	36%	38%	14%	1%	-
18	BUZINKAI Brennan	1%	11%	38%	42%	8%	-
19	BEDWORTH Paige	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
20	YUN Max	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
21	FISHER Edward	10%	37%	41%	11%	1%	-
22	VOORHEES Owen	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
23	JONES Zamauri	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
24	BLUHM Kyle	15%	54%	29%	2%	-	-
25	CARNEY Landon	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
26	PROFFITT Benjamin	11%	35%	37%	16%	2%	-
27	KONTANIS Linus	5%	26%	43%	23%	3%	-
28	GLENN Alistair	-	14%	53%	28%	5%	-
29	TRUDEAU Allison	25%	44%	26%	5%	-	-
30	KAYMAK Karel	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-
31	LOVE Ryan	18%	45%	32%	5%	-	-
32	WATSON Colby	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
33	DAVIDSON Joseph	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
34	DAVIDSON Micah	1%	9%	31%	40%	18%	1%
35	FOUNDAS Thaddeus	2%	20%	40%	30%	8%	-
36	LAND John	1%	17%	42%	32%	7%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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