Jeff Wolfe Long Island Challenge

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 12:30 PM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MEYERS Lee P.	-	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%
2	JOSEPH Dominic (Dom)	-	-	-	5%	29%	65%
3	SACCOCCIO Nicholas P.	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
3	ANCONA Christopher	-	-	5%	18%	34%	32%	12%
5	IVARSSON Oliver	-	1%	13%	41%	37%	8%
6	DESANDO Michael R.	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
7	LE Vyn A.	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
8	XIAO Anthony	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
9	SHIKHMAN Robert	-	1%	7%	29%	42%	21%
10	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	-	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
11	KWON Ethan	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
12	FEDONCHIK Henry J.	-	4%	18%	39%	33%	5%
13	CORTIZAS John (Jack)	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
14	WANG JONATHAN	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
15	BOISLARD Adam J.	-	2%	13%	36%	37%	12%
16	SANTIAGO Elias	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	5%
17	SANTULLI Tristan	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
18	VAZQUEZ Sebastian A.	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
19	AMODEMO Charles	5%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
20	HEALY Tyler	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	3%
21	KIFER Caleb	-	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
22	ZHAO Jesse	2%	22%	43%	26%	6%	1%
23	SCHKODA Jeremy	9%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
24	DYCKMAN Andrew P.	13%	41%	35%	11%	1%	-
24	SHEIKH Arham	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
26	QUIAMBAO Bonifacio	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
27	HOE Kenneth Y.	-	7%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
28	BOVA Andrew	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
29	BELLUOMO David C.	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
31	MONTALBINE Aidan	3%	34%	42%	17%	3%	-
31	MAGIDSON Josh	10%	35%	38%	16%	2%	-
33	CAPUTO John	74%	24%	3%	-	-	-
34	FOSS Timothy	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
35	MANLAPAZ Jan Vincent	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
36	MEDINA David	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-
37	ZHANG Shenghong	65%	31%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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