Jeff Wolfe Long Island Challenge

Div I-A Women's Foil

Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:45 AM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FERRARI Christina M.	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
2	JING Alexandra	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
3	KIM Rachael	-	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	8%
3	HO Brianna W.	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%	1%
5	SHEN Sophia H.	-	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
6	KOENIG Charlotte R.	3%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%
7	ZHENG Ivy	-	-	3%	15%	35%	36%	11%
8	FANG Sabrina	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
9	LI Grace Q.	-	-	6%	26%	45%	23%
10	LESLIE Ryanne T.	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	15%
11	HE Fenghuan	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	19%	4%
12	GAYDOS Sofia C.	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
13	MOLHO Sofia	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
14	ABAYEVA Sasha	-	-	1%	8%	30%	41%	19%
15	YUGOV Elizabeth (Liz Yugov)	-	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
16	LI Meilin	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
17	DAVIA Daniella V.	-	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
18	HOOSHI Erica S.	-	1%	11%	31%	39%	18%
19	SHI Haoqing	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
20	ADAMS KIM Natalie	-	4%	21%	40%	26%	7%	1%
21	SADAN Jordan E.	1%	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%
22	REN Olivia Y.	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	10%
23	SHAW Kayla M.	-	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
24	MING YUE	1%	15%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
25	LIAO Lu Jia (Lucy)	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%
26	KIM Lauren Hyomin	1%	8%	32%	40%	17%	2%
27	PO Edith	2%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%
28	YU Jaime L.	21%	49%	25%	5%	-	-
29	SHANG Andrea	1%	27%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-
30	HOLLE Aviella S.	-	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-
31	BOODELL Ella	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
32	STEWART Isabella A.	-	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	1%
33	BECCHINA Claire E.	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-
34	NICOU Melina	21%	50%	24%	4%	-	-	-
35	DU Hannah	29%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-
36	MCKEE Alexandra K.	47%	42%	10%	1%	-	-
37	YEUNG Cherry	100%	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	MAO SHIYI	47%	42%	11%	1%	-	-	-
39	SILVER Anna	95%	5%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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