Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC/RYC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Hall C - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TOLBA Abdelrahman	-	-	-	-	-	10%	89%
2	ZOBEL Eric H.	-	-	-	1%	15%	52%	32%
3	PECK Quinn	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	1%
3	HOLLIS Sean	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	-
5	GRIGORIEV Eduard	-	-	-	-	9%	46%	44%
6	TANG August L.	-	-	1%	7%	35%	43%	14%
7	ARCE Andrew W.	-	-	4%	20%	43%	31%	2%
8	MARTIRE Luca	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
9	CHO Jadon Yushin	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
10	JIMENEZ Naveen	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
11	BAI Brian	-	-	1%	15%	56%	26%	3%
12	CHO Michael	-	-	-	1%	13%	43%	43%
13	ZAIDI Adil	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
14	SHANNON Jack	-	4%	25%	42%	25%	4%
15	POPESCU Tudor	-	-	1%	12%	41%	37%	9%
16	KAGAN Noah	7%	31%	41%	18%	2%	-	-
17	TANG Alexander L.	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
18	XU Dinghui Ryan	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%	-
19	STRAYER Andrew	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
20	LEE Charles T	-	11%	37%	37%	13%	1%
21	KWON Chase	5%	43%	39%	12%	1%	-
22	HAN Alexander	-	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
23	ZAPPALA Nikolai	1%	10%	33%	41%	14%	2%	-
24	SHAW Eric	21%	44%	28%	7%	-	-	-
25	BAI Austin	2%	11%	31%	35%	18%	3%
26	GREENE Amit	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
27	ROJAS Elijah	5%	36%	40%	16%	3%	-	-
28	STURGIS Zachary C.	-	1%	24%	58%	15%	1%	-
29	GODIN Willis	-	13%	58%	26%	2%	-	-
30	AMEND Jake	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
31	BLACK Zachary	-	3%	20%	41%	30%	5%
32	MAK Collin Chun Shing	-	1%	5%	20%	38%	30%	7%
33	ADLER Eli	17%	65%	17%	1%	-	-	-
34	GALLER Dave	1%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%	-
35	AMRANI David	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
36	ELSAYED Ahmed	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-	-
37	LIN Evan	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-
38	STRAYER Cody	28%	44%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
39	LINGAMPALLI Sashank	74%	25%	1%	-	-	-	-
40	ROZENBLIT Nick	71%	25%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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