River City Regional Rumble RYC/RJCC/Y8

Y-14 Women's Saber

Sunday, October 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YADAV Tishya	-	-	2%	21%	78%
2	MAJEWSKA Maria	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	45%
3	ROSTHOLDER Hannah	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
3	HU Emily	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	31%	8%
5	HEATH Isabella	-	-	-	6%	37%	57%
6	MING Emma	-	-	5%	26%	52%	18%
7	ZHANG Manyao	1%	12%	41%	41%	5%
8	TIAN Ariana	3%	25%	47%	23%	1%
9	GUO Daisy	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
10	VUDTHITHAMRONG Vivienne	-	-	2%	15%	44%	40%
11	TOPALOV Julia	-	1%	7%	29%	45%	18%
12	FANG Elena	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
13	PHILLIPPY Hannah	-	5%	23%	43%	25%	4%
14	JOHNSON Marlee	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
15	ARANGO Ivanna	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%	-
16	CHANG Kelly	2%	17%	41%	33%	7%	-
17	AHLUWALIA Vera	10%	30%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
18	DESAI Sabrina	2%	15%	40%	35%	8%	-
19	NORRIS Phoebe	23%	47%	25%	5%	-	-
20	MCCABE Ashley	12%	45%	35%	8%	-
21	GISCHLER Mila	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
22	SIROTA Simone	8%	33%	41%	16%	2%	-
23	MAZZURCO Marin	13%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
24	WANG Selina	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%
25	SADHU Mira	57%	36%	7%	-	-
26	QUILLIAM Ophelia	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
27	MAZZURCO Sydney	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
28	HAROYAN Lilit	36%	44%	17%	2%	-	-
29	BENNETT Eloise	15%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
31	CAO Amanda	31%	45%	20%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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