River City Regional Rumble RYC/RJCC/Y8

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, October 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
2	YADAV Lakshya	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
3	SU Landon	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
3	YAN William	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
5	HUCHWAJDA Alex	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
6	CRAIN Bennett	-	1%	14%	44%	41%
7	BUKZIN Alan	2%	15%	36%	32%	12%	2%
8	SLAVNOV Anton	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	3%
9	HALL Noah	-	3%	18%	39%	31%	8%
10	VLASENKO Bohdan	-	3%	18%	40%	34%	5%
11	BALU Aedan	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
12	LIN Felix	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
13	HARRINGTON Connor	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	20%
14	REHM Liam	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%	1%
15	MATTINGLY Ian	3%	26%	46%	22%	3%
16	EYSTER Edison	1%	10%	30%	39%	19%	1%
17	BREUER Daniel	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
18	FENG Brendan	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
19	SHEN jiayi	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
20	BENE Paul	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
21	STRUCKER Rocco	3%	18%	39%	31%	8%	-
22	PARCELL Colby	-	5%	27%	48%	21%
23	CHAWLA Abhishek	1%	28%	43%	23%	5%	-
24	QIN toby	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	1%
25	MOON Noah	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
26	BENE Andrew	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%	-
27	ORIE Sohan	1%	21%	42%	28%	7%	1%
28	HEIMOV Brennan	69%	28%	4%	-	-
29	LIU Jayden	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
30	ALLEN Asa	7%	41%	40%	11%	1%
31	KANE Kiran	20%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
32	HOWERTON Beckett	23%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-
33	BRAMLETT Myer	20%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-
33	GOLART Dylan	25%	44%	25%	6%	-	-
35	WANG Ziyao	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
36	TEPLESKY Sasha	92%	8%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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