River City Regional Rumble RYC/RJCC/Y8

Cadet Women's Épée

Sunday, October 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	YANG Hannah	-	1%	5%	23%	42%	29%
2	LEVKOV Maita	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
3	JEYOON Lauren	-	-	6%	26%	45%	23%
3	BURT Emmalyne Grace	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
5	RICHARDS Axelle	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
6	NOLAN Sophia	-	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%
7	CHEN Ava	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
8	SHIN Jamie	-	2%	13%	37%	37%	11%
9	BERGAN Bailey	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
10	JIANG Alexandra	-	4%	27%	50%	19%
11	YAO Chloe	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	15%
11	AZAD Ava	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
13	SILVA Hailey	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%
14	BECKMAN Amaya	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
15	KUPPUSAMY Mahaa	1%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%
16	RAGSDALE Lillian	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
17	LI Xier	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
19	WEAVER Malaya	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%	1%
20	AXELROD Charlotte	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
21	D'ANGELO Olivia	3%	18%	39%	30%	9%	1%
22	STEEL Jane	11%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-
23	KELSEY Fabienne	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-
24	KWON Claire	2%	19%	49%	27%	4%
25	KALI Aiana	35%	45%	17%	3%	-	-
26	GULER Zeynep	17%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
27	ILYAS Lyla	19%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-
28	YOON Elsa	2%	19%	42%	29%	7%	1%
29	ASHFORD Marguerite	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
30	BROSNAN Mabel	64%	32%	4%	-	-
30	KIM Kaylin	40%	44%	14%	2%	-	-
32	JOHNSTON Ashlyn	< 1%	2%	14%	40%	35%	9%
33	MORET Teagan	14%	52%	29%	5%	-
34	DROLET Julia	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
35	GUERRERO Sara	10%	41%	36%	12%	2%	-
36	NAPOLI Eleanor	25%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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