2025 Escrime d'Halloween RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, October 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM

The Edge - Twinsburg, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KNAPP Isabella	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
2	HU Sophie	-	-	-	-	7%	36%	56%
3	RIVERA Leahy	-	-	-	1%	12%	47%	40%
3	SUN Nicole	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	31%	8%
5	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
6	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	67%
7	YANG Olivia	-	-	-	1%	14%	50%	35%
8	SAMALA Reese	-	-	4%	20%	42%	29%	5%
9	PARANJAPE Ojasvi	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	19%	2%
10	TELEB Farida	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
11	KASHUBA Mila	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
12	ZHOU Jolena	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%	-
13	LIN Athena	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
14	YARBILOVA Fasikhat	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	1%
15	YARLAGADDA Smaya	14%	35%	32%	15%	3%	-	-
16	ESMONDE-WHITE Daphne	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
17	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%	2%
18	HUANG Emma	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%	2%
19	KIM Yuna	-	-	2%	13%	39%	37%	8%
20	LALONDE Beatrice	-	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%	-
21	BELL Blake	1%	10%	31%	37%	17%	3%	-
22	HEWITT Madison	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%	-
23	GONZALEZ Lauren	7%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
24	KANASZ Peyton	10%	38%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
25	CHO Yuna	5%	25%	40%	24%	6%	-	-
26	SHANG Arianna	-	-	3%	16%	40%	35%	6%
27	CHAN Chloe	2%	16%	37%	33%	10%	1%	-
28	REDEMANN Reagan	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%	-
29	JIMÉNEZ PELAY Claudia	16%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
30	HUANG Rosalyn	2%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%	-
31	CULLIVAN Elise	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
32	LIU Doris	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
33	MILLER Sydney	37%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
34	LIU Sophia	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	13%	2%
35	D'MELLO Ariella	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	6%	-
36	KAGAN Natalie	11%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
37	MA Sophie	4%	21%	35%	28%	10%	2%	-
38	KERR Ingrid	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
39	ARSOVSKI Maya	10%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
39	GANOCY Sloane	29%	43%	22%	5%	-	-	-
41	JAGARLAMUDI Himanshu	15%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
42	HUANG Charise	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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