AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Junior Women's Foil

Friday, October 31, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	18%
2	BROWN Lola	-	-	1%	9%	38%	51%
3	HO Addison	-	-	1%	13%	47%	38%
3	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	1%	8%	29%	46%	16%
5	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
6	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	-	1%	8%	39%	52%
7	LUO Miranda	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
8	LENK Sophie	-	-	2%	16%	46%	35%
9	LI Chelsea	1%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
10	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	2%	17%	50%	32%
11	TAO Ann	-	-	2%	12%	36%	40%	10%
12	MA Isabelle	5%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-
13	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	5%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-
14	MIYOSHI Kylie	6%	31%	41%	19%	3%	-
15	NEUMANN Erika	-	4%	26%	48%	20%	2%
16	WU Chingfei Amber	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	13%
17	GUAN Adeline	-	-	4%	21%	48%	27%
18	YAO Abby	-	2%	13%	37%	39%	10%
19	HAN Gian	-	7%	29%	41%	20%	3%
20	JENA Aanvi	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
21	CHEN Jinyu	1%	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
22	SCHULTZ Sumi	1%	8%	28%	39%	20%	4%	-
23	HSU Rachel	2%	17%	40%	32%	9%	1%
24	ZHU Yunyao	7%	30%	40%	20%	3%	-
25	AHN Hayley	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
26	LUCAS Ava	16%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
27	DESAI Esha	1%	11%	34%	38%	14%	1%
28	LEE Abigail	8%	40%	37%	13%	2%	-
29	REN Kayley	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
30	HOM Avery	4%	24%	47%	22%	3%	-
31	DAI Iris Yuyang	-	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	2%
32	ZHOU Joi	1%	11%	32%	38%	16%	2%
33	LIM Kensie	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
34	MANANSALA Zara	38%	45%	15%	2%	-	-	-
35	TEWARI Amaira	30%	48%	19%	2%	-	-
36	ZHANG Viviana	1%	13%	37%	37%	11%	1%
37	DVOIRIS Maya	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
38	CHANG Janelle	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
39	VOROBIEV Alexandra	12%	38%	36%	12%	1%	-	-
40	YU Sophie	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-
41	SAUCEDO Fernanda	35%	48%	16%	2%	-	-
42	WANG Ellen	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-
43	MCLEAN Liyana	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.