Battle in Space City ROC/RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 11:00 AM

University of Houston - Campus Recreation and Wellness Center - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	NEAL John P.	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
2	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	-	6%	33%	60%
3	CHIN Dylan A.	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	IBANEZ Benjamin	4%	30%	44%	20%	2%
5	MULDOON Thomas	1%	6%	22%	39%	28%	5%
6	KIM Gene	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	30%
7	SATHYAN Dev	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
8	JOHNSON Ryder	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
9	GOODMAN Benjamin	1%	8%	25%	37%	25%	6%
10	KIM Leejay	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
11	POHL Philip	1%	13%	36%	37%	12%	1%
12	LU Haoyang	2%	18%	43%	32%	5%
13	DADE MAXIMUS	3%	25%	44%	25%	3%
14	PARKS-GOOD Tyler	2%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
15	ZHAN ETHAN	67%	28%	4%	-	-
16	VINOTH Aaron	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
17	DECKER Hunter	-	2%	13%	38%	39%	8%
18	SOOS Whitman	2%	11%	31%	37%	18%	2%
19	PARKS Pierce	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
20	LOBO Mauricio	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
21	OBREBSKI Kevin	2%	14%	38%	35%	11%	1%
22	DINH Nam	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
23	RUAN Yichen	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
24	MICU Constantin	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
25	CHAN Kyle Si Tin	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
26	KIM Alexander	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-
27	HUANG Ethan	22%	45%	26%	6%	-	-
28	TUMULA Arihaan	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
29	PATEL Avi S.	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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