Trick or Retreat RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM

NJ Convention & Exposition Center - Edison, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	67%
2	PEVZNER Nicole	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
3	LI Joy	-	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
3	ZHAO Olivia	-	-	3%	20%	43%	30%	4%
5	SHIN Elizabeth	-	1%	10%	35%	44%	9%
6	CHEN Sophie	-	1%	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%
7	WANG Amabel	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
8	JOO Natalie	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
9	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
10	DE CASTRO Kai	-	7%	27%	39%	22%	4%
11	JIANG Chloe	-	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	5%
12	ORRINGER Lottie	-	-	5%	24%	43%	25%	3%
13	MCSHERRY Kayla	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
14	ZELDIN Nadia	-	-	4%	21%	41%	29%	5%
15	CAO Amelie	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	22%	4%
16	LI Christina	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
17	ZAMLYNNY Maya	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	4%
18	BASILE Gianna	-	-	3%	16%	39%	33%	9%
19	LI Junhan	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
20	BO Iris	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
21	PHAN Logan	2%	18%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
22	BERGEL Daphne	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	21%
23	SNYDERS Evelyn	5%	34%	39%	18%	4%	-
24	LIU Yinuo	1%	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%
25	BADLANI Diya	-	2%	14%	39%	35%	11%	1%
26	CHEN lucia	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
27	EPSTEIN Naomi	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
28	REZA Fukaina	-	3%	19%	40%	28%	8%	1%
29	HUSSIAN Annabelle	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
30	FEDER Acadia	4%	22%	41%	27%	6%	-
31	SFINTESCU Emma	1%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
32	EYER Brooke	< 1%	2%	14%	35%	37%	13%
33	MANGLANI Maya	1%	13%	36%	37%	12%	1%
34	PEVZNER Sophia	13%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
35	JAIN Dia	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-
36	STEWART Isla	45%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
37	LEO Jenna	2%	22%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
38	LAZAR Carolina	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	6%	-
39	LENZ Phoebe	66%	31%	3%	-	-	-	-
40	BEKIYANTS Elizabeth	13%	48%	31%	6%	-	-	-
41	NICUDEMUS Bryella	-	10%	40%	35%	12%	2%	-
42	VACCARO Lillian	12%	47%	33%	8%	1%	-	-
43	ALBRECHT-SMITH Anne	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-
44	SONG Sarah	62%	33%	5%	-	-	-	-
45	CLARK Lillian	48%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-
45	FLANAGAN Sarah	17%	55%	24%	4%	-	-	-
47	PIERSIG Eleanor	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.